China powers ahead in EV sales but faces slowing growth
What the chart shows
This chart shows the monthly sales and year-over-year (YoY) growth trends of China's electric vehicles (EV), segmented into battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs. Fuel cell EVs, while included in the data, are not visible due to their low sales volumes. The upper pane shows absolute sales volume in millions, while the lower pane highlights YoY growth rates.
The chart aims to provide a view of the evolution of China’s EV market, including shifts in the contribution of different types of EVs to total sales and growth.
Behind the data
Despite international curbs on Chinese EV exports, driven by concerns about potential unfair advantages from government subsidies, domestic EV sales have continued to expand. The upper pane reveals that BEVs remain the biggest contributor to China’s EV sales volume, though PHEVs are playing an increasingly significant role. China's share of the global EV market has risen to 76%, reinforcing its position as a global leader in EV adoption.
However, the YoY growth rates have moderated over time, largely due to a slowdown in BEV sales, as the lower pane indicates. This deceleration reflects a maturing market and potential saturation in domestic demand for BEVs.
Nvidia’s market value surpasses entire developed markets in AI boom
What the chart shows
This chart compares Nvidia's market capitalization to the total market cap of eight selected developed markets, tracked monthly from January 2023 to the present. Each cell represents the total market value of a given country or region, as measured by the MSCI All Cap index. A transparent overlay within each cell highlights the proportion of Nvidia's market cap relative to the country's total market size, turning into a solid colour when its market value exceeds the total for that market. This chart highlights the remarkable rise of the US semiconductor company renowned for graphics processing units (GPUs) that power AI technologies.
Behind the data
Nvidia's extraordinary growth amidst the AI-driven boom has turned it into the largest company in the world by market value. Its market cap first surpassed the combined total of Italy, Spain and Portugal in May 2023. By January 2024, the company had overtaken the total market sizes of Australia, Germany and the Nordics. By June 2024, it had surpassed even the United Kingdom for the first time, one of the world’s biggest developed markets. Nvidia's valuation growth underscores the growing dominance of mega-cap technology companies amid speculation and enthusiasm over the transformative potential of emerging technologies like AI.
Semiconductor valuations soar amid growth hype
What the chart shows
This table displays MSCI World valuations across industries, measured by key financial metrics: trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, 12-month forward P/E ratio, price-to-book (P/B) ratio and dividend yield. Each metric is colour-coded according to 15-year Z-scores, ranging from blue (indicating lower valuations) to red (indicating higher valuations.) Industries are ranked by their average Z-scores, providing a comparative view of relative over- and undervaluation.
This metric provides a normalized view of valuations relative to historical benchmarks, helping investors and analysts identify areas of potential overexuberance or overlooked opportunities.
Behind the data
As of November the semiconductor industry stands out as the most overvalued sector, driven by high trailing P/E and P/B ratios – both exceeding two standard deviations above the historical average. This overvaluation may reflect heightened investor expectations, fueled by strong demand from high-growth areas such as artificial intelligence and electric vehicles.
Conversely, industries such as food products, beverages, personal care and automobile components appear undervalued, potentially due to their perception as mature, lower-growth sectors.
Post-election market winners and losers: Bitcoin surges, safe havens slip
What the chart shows
This table provides a comparative view of the performance of key asset classes from 4 November to 13 November, capturing the immediate market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory on 5 November. Asset classes are categorized by percentage changes, highlighting the top-performing and underperforming segments.
Behind the data
Trump’s victory triggered significant rallies in certain asset classes, led by Bitcoin, which surged to a new all-time high as renewed optimism in digital assets drew investors to cryptocurrencies. US equities also reacted positively, with small-cap stocks outperforming as investor optimism favoured growth-focused domestic assets. This highlights optimism in sectors more closely tied to the US economy, reflecting expectations that Trump’s policies could favour domestic industries.
In contrast, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, crude oil and emerging market (EM) equities saw declines. Gold faced selling pressure as investors reallocated toward higher-risk assets expected to benefit from potential growth-friendly policies. Crude oil’s decline mirrors similar investor shifts. Chinese and European equities also underperformed, a sign of apprehension over potential trade realignments and economic impacts stemming from renewed US policies.
How US stocks react to presidential elections
What the chart shows
This two-panel chart shows the historical performance of the S&P 500 from Election Day through Inauguration Day and into the early days of each new US administration. The top panel shows market trends when a Republican candidate wins, with shaded red and pink areas above and below to indicate variability in performance. The lower panel mirrors this for Democratic victories. By charting these periods, we can observe any patterns or anomalies in market response based on the winning party.
Behind the data
A central question during presidential elections is how the stock market would react to the outcome. For example, following Trump’s election in 2016, Bitcoin, equity futures and the US dollar experienced notable increases. This chart takes a broader view, focusing on market performance not only in the days immediately following the election, but also through the first 75 trading days of a new administration. Historically, when Republicans assume office, the S&P 500 has often shown an initial uptick until Inauguration Day, sometimes followed by a modest correction. Will history repeat itself this time around?
IMF flags rising debt levels as fiscal pressures mount
What the chart shows
This chart displays the debt-to-GDP ratio across various global economies, segmented into three sectors: general government, households and nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs), and non-financial corporations. Key groupings, such as the G20, Emerging Markets, and Advanced Economies are also highlighted to provide a broad perspective on global debt distribution.
Behind the data
In its October 2024 Fiscal Monitor, the IMF projects that global public debt will exceed $100 trillion by the end of the year, with the global debt-to-GDP ratio expected to approach 100% by 2030. Rapid debt accumulation is concentrated in major economies, including the US and China, but the pace and composition of debt vary significantly worldwide.
The IMF identifies several key risks to public debt: rising costs from technology innovation, climate adaptation, demographic pressures, political volatility, and optimism bias in economic projections. To address them, it has introduced a “debt-at-risk” framework to help policymakers assess various debt scenarios under adverse conditions.
The analysis shows that, under current fiscal policies, most countries will be unable to stabilize their debt-to-GDP ratios without further adjustments. The IMF recommends gradual, people-centric fiscal adjustments to safeguard growth, warning that deep cuts to public investment could harm long-term economic stability. However, countries with strong fiscal institutions are better positioned to protect critical investments, even during crises.