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This edition of Macro Trends examines the potential re-entry of Venezuelan crude into U.S. oil markets and the implications for global oil supply, refinery utilisation, and trade composition. Despite Venezuela’s vast reserves, years of underinvestment, sanctions, and operational decline mean any renewed engagement would occur within a mature, capacity-constrained U.S. refining system.
It explores how elevated refinery utilisation, shifting crude slates, and higher domestic production limit the scope for a rebound in U.S. crude imports. Rather than expanding overall supply, incremental Venezuelan barrels are more likely to displace other heavy grades and rebalance trade flows, with impacts concentrated across select energy market participants.
This edition of Macro Moves analyzes the limited price response in crude oil following recent developments in a major producing economy through the lens of market structure and expectations. The report examines changes in effective supply, production capacity, and spare capacity, alongside futures curve dynamics and market-implied oil risk premia. By placing current pricing behavior in a historical context, the analysis illustrates how shifts in global supply diversification and pre-priced risk have altered oil’s sensitivity to external shocks, and what current term structures imply for market expectations into 2026.
