Final edition: Tech titans, Europe’s energy challenges, US housing affordability

Tech titans dominate as Nvidia and Apple lead 2024 market cap surge

What the chart shows

This table displays the market capitalization changes of major global stocks, with a particular emphasis on US-based companies, during 2024. It shows their market cap at the beginning and end of the year, with a sliding scale to visualize the growth or decline in value over the year.

Behind the data

In 2024, the US equity market outperformed its global peers, driven primarily by mega-cap tech companies. By year-end, US stocks accounted for over 50% of the total global market value.

Nvidia was a standout performer, with its market cap soaring by US$2 trillion to over US$3.3 trillion. This extraordinary growth was fuelled by its leadership in AI and graphics processing unit (GPU) technologies.  

Despite Nvidia's impressive rise, Apple retained its position as the most valuable company globally, with a market cap of over US$3.7 trillion. Microsoft followed with a market value of US$3.1 trillion, while Amazon and Alphabet each surpassed US$2 trillion. These figures underscore the strength of the tech sector and enduring investor confidence in its prospects.  

In contrast, Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco) saw a decline of about US$300 billion in its market cap, ending the year at US$1.8 trillion. This was likely driven by lower crude oil prices and weakening refining margins.

China’s demand-supply gap narrows, highlighting deflation risks

What the chart shows

This chart tracks demand-supply dynamics in China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors from 2007 to 2024. It uses Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to record differentials between new orders (demand) and inventory (supply). It also highlights their historical trends and confidence intervals.

Behind the data

The differential between new orders and inventory provides valuable insights into the balance between demand and supply in China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. A positive differential suggests rising demand relative to supply, often signaling inflation pressures, while a declining or negative differential points to disinflationary or deflationary trends.  

Over the years, these differentials have generally decreased, reflecting weakening demand relative to supply. This aligns with broader economic trends in China, such as disinflation in consumer prices and outright deflation in producer prices in recent years. Notably, the new orders-inventory PMI differentials for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing have gravitated towards zero, underscoring significant cooling of demand.  

This trend highlights potential deflationary risks in China.

How US presidencies shaped German exports to China and France

What the chart shows

This chart shows German exports to the US, China and France from 2000 to 2024, set against Democratic (blue) and Republican (red) presidencies.  

Behind the data

Donald Trump’s trade policy continues to shape trade discussions in 2025. This chart examines how German exports, as a key indicator of Europe's largest exporter, have evolved under different US administrations.  

During Trump's pre-COVID presidency, German exports to both the US and China grew significantly, reflecting robust global trade and possible rebalancing of supply chains. However, exports to France, Germany’s traditional European partner, saw more subdued growth over the same period.  

Under Joe Biden's presidency, German exports increased overall, but exports to China declined notably. This shift may reflect geopolitical tensions, slower Chinese economic growth or evolving supply chain strategies.

Gas storage pressures mount as Europe faces new supply challenges

What the chart shows

This chart highlights seasonal trends in German gas inventories, showing historical and forecasted storage levels. The blue line represents 2024-2025 data, including forecasted values based on seasonal patterns observed over the past five years. The purple line indicates the median storage level, while the green shaded area represents the 25th to 75th percentile range. Grey shaded areas denote the historical highs and lows since 2016. This visualization of both past and projected storage levels provides insights into Europe’s energy supply dynamics.

Behind the data

European natural gas futures surged to their highest levels in months after Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine ceased due to an expired transit deal. This disruption drove the Dutch TTF benchmark upward before stabilizing, spurred by freezing temperatures and fears of supply shortages. The cessation of flows through Ukraine, a significant transit route for EU natural gas imports, has accelerated storage withdrawals, depleting inventories more quickly than usual.  

While an immediate energy crisis is unlikely, Europe faces increased market volatility and higher costs to replenish reserves. Central European nations, particularly those heavily reliant on the Ukrainian route, will be most affected. To mitigate risks, the European Commission has proposed alternative supply routes, such as sourcing gas from Greece, Turkey and Romania.  

However, rising gas prices could strain EU households, undermine industrial competitiveness and complicate efforts to prepare for future winters. This chart underscores the urgency of diversifying energy supplies and maintaining sufficient storage levels to weather potential disruptions.  

Treasury yields reflect post-pandemic economic reality

What the chart shows

This chart displays the 10-year US Treasury yield from 1990 to 2024, highlighting linear trends for pre- and post-COVID periods alongside 95% confidence intervals. The blue line represents the yield, while the green line indicates the long-term trend before and after the pandemic. Periods of US recessions are also highlighted to provide context.

Behind the data

The linear trendlines reflect two distinct economic environments: a pre-COVID era marked by slower growth, reduced inflation and lower interest rates, and a post-COVID period defined by resilient growth, above-target inflation and elevated interest rates.  

The 10-year yield fell temporarily below the upward 95% confidence band between early September and early October last year, influenced by softer labor market data. However, it quickly rebounded as solid economic releases supported higher yields. Policy dynamics, such as Trump's economic and trade measures, could contribute to further upward pressure on bond yields.  

While expectations for rate cuts have moderated, further monetary easing may still weigh on bond yields, creating a balancing act for the bond market.  

Dollar rises as markets bet on a Fed pause in January

What the chart shows

This chart compares the US Dollar Index (DXY) with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain an unchanged policy rate after its January meeting. The green line represents the probability of a Fed pause, while the blue line tracks the DXY.  

Behind the data

The US economy continues to show resilience, buoyed by a strong labor market, as highlighted in last week’s robust jobs report. This has prompted investors to reassess their expectations for Fed policy. Fed funds futures now suggest a strong likelihood of rates holding steady in January.  

Entering 2025, market sentiment points to only one rate cut this year, a significant shift from prior expectations of more aggressive monetary easing. This has boosted the US dollar, which has climbed to its highest level since November 2022. This upward momentum aligns with the broader mini cycle that began in October, when yields, equities and the dollar bottomed out.

Housing affordability gap widens between US cities

What the chart shows

This chart ranks apartment purchase affordability across the 30 largest US cities, using Numbeo’s Property Price to Income Ratio. This metric divides the median price of a 90-square-meter apartment by the median familial disposable income, providing a standardized measure of affordability for an average household.

Lower ratios signify greater affordability, meaning residents in these cities need fewer years of income to purchase a standard-sized apartment. Conversely, higher ratios indicate that housing is less accessible, often due to high property prices, lower income levels, or both.

Behind the data

The US real estate market shows significant variation in affordability between cities, reflecting differing economic, demographic and geographic factors. According to Numbeo’s data, New York City and Washington D.C. are the least affordable, followed by four Californian cities, Boston and Phoenix – highlighting the high cost of living in major metropolitan and coastal areas.

In contrast, cities in the north-Midwest, such as Detroit, Indianapolis and Milwaukee, rank as the most affordable.  

Nationally, the average property price-to-income ratio has hovered between 3 and 4 in recent years, providing a benchmark for US housing affordability. However, the stark disparities seen in this chart show the importance of localized analysis when assessing housing trends and their implications for both residents and policymakers.

A note to our readers

After more than two years of sharing Charts of the Week with you, we’ve decided to conclude this series to focus on an exciting new initiative: Macrobond Mondays, a roll-up of high-value charts coming soon.

Thank you for your engagement and support over the years. While this is the final edition of Charts of the Week, we’re eager to continue delivering high-value content. Stay tuned for updates in the coming weeks!

We’re honoured to have been part of your weekly routine and look forward to continuing to provide you with valuable insights.

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Best regards,

The Macrobond Team