Charts of the Year: 2024's most popular visualizations, Part I

Recession pressures ease but risks linger

What the chart shows

This updated US recession dashboard revisits several macroeconomic and market indicators, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, credit growth, residential construction, new manufacturing orders, truck sales, 10-year-3-month term spread and corporate earnings growth. These indicators are heat-mapped using historical Z-scores and combined into a composite recession score to reflect conditions and expectations for economic contraction.

Behind the data

When this chart was first published on 26 January 2024, recession pressure had reached elevated levels, with the composite score peaking at more than 84% in October 2023. At that time, slowing loan growth, weakness in leading economic indices and the inverted government bond yield curve signaled significant caution, despite a resilient job market.

Since then, the picture has improved slightly. Recession pressure moderated in recent months, even plunging to 27% in November 2024. The labor market remains strong, while some leading indicators, such as new manufacturing orders, are showing tentative stabilization. However, loan growth remains soft, and the term spread remained inverted although towards uninversion, maintaining a degree of uncertainty.

While hopes of avoiding a recession have strengthened since January, risks persist. Vigilance remains essential as mixed signals across key indicators suggest caution in economic and investment decisions.

Markets hold their nerve as fear gives way to greed in 2024

What the chart shows

This chart recreates CNN's Fear & Greed Index to evaluate investor sentiment and drivers of market behavior. The analysis focuses on five out of seven key indicators:

• Stock price momentum: S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving average. Positive values indicate greed as stocks outperform, while negative values reflect fear due to declining equity prices.

• Put-to-call ratio: the five-day average of options trading activity. Low values signal greed with more call options, while high values indicate fear as put options rise.

• Market volatility: measured by the VIX index. Low volatility reflects greed and market calm, whereas high volatility signals fear and rising uncertainty.

• Junk bond demand: the spread between junk and investment-grade bonds. Tight spreads show greed with strong demand for risky bonds, while wide spreads reflect fear and risk aversion.

• Safe haven demand: the relative outperformance of short-term bonds versus stocks. Low demand indicates greed as investors favor stocks, whereas high demand signals fear as investors seek safety in bonds.

Each indicator is expressed as a Z-score, which measures its deviation from historical norms.

Behind the data

When this chart was last published on 19 January 2024, the market had been in the “greedy” phase since November, driven by positive inflation data and dovish statements from the Federal Reserve. At that time, stock price momentum and junk bond demand were key contributors to investor optimism, while market volatility (VIX) remained relatively low.

In this updated version, we can see that the market has maintained that greedy stance for most of the year, with only a brief exception during the summer months when investor sentiment temporarily softened.

Stock price momentum remains strong, as the S&P 500 continues to outperform its 125-day moving average, while the spread on junk bonds has tightened further, signaling sustained risk appetite. Market volatility saw a slight summer spike but has since dipped, underscoring ongoing investor confidence.

US stocks close 2024 with exceptional gains amid historic trends

What the chart shows

This chart groups annual S&P 500 returns into 10-percentage-point ranges, using nearly a century of data to identify patterns in performance. Each year is color-coded, with 2024 highlighted in the darkest blue to emphasize its exceptional performance, and earlier years gradually fading as we move back in time.  

We can see that the 10-20% and 20-30% gain brackets have historically been the most common, while outliers – such as dramatic declines during the Great Depression and the 2008 bear market – sit at the extremes. Notably, 2024’s annual return falls into the 20-30% gain range, placing it among the strongest years on record.

Behind the data

When this chart was first published on 19 January 2024, it was too early to determine where the year’s returns would land within the historical distribution. Now, as we close out 2024, its 20-30% gain stands out as a clear success, a reminder of the market’s ability to deliver outsized gains despite ongoing variability.

Rising bond yields challenged stock market advantage in 2024

What the chart shows

This chart tracks the US equity risk premium (ERP), a simplified measure calculated by subtracting the 10-year Treasury yield from the equity earnings yield. The chart shows how the gap between equity and bond returns has narrowed over time. Positive values indicate that stocks are delivering higher returns relative to bonds, while negative values—as seen recently—mean bonds are outperforming equities. In this updated version, the ERP dipped below zero for the first time since 2002.

Behind the data

When this chart was first published on 16 February 2024, the US ERP was already hovering near historic lows, with stocks offering only marginally higher returns than bonds – far below historical norms.

Since then, bond yields have continued to climb, keeping pressure on equity valuations and compressing the premium further. A brief upswing occurred during summer-to-autumn months, largely fueled by Nvidia's sharp rally and the tech sector’s strength. But this momentum was short-lived. Recent developments, including the aftermath of election results, reversed these gains and pushed the ERP into negative territory.

The updated chart underscores the shifting balance between equities and bonds, a reminder of the critical role that interest rates play in portfolio allocation decisions.

Global central banks shift to rate cuts as inflation eases

What the chart shows

This chart tracks key monetary and inflationary indicators for 30 global economies, including headline and core inflation (year-over-year), current policy rates and the latest central bank decisions. The visualization allows for quick comparisons of monetary trends across countries, highlighting differences in inflation levels, policy actions and the time elapsed since the last rate hike or cut.

Behind the data

Since this chart was first published on 23 March 2024, the global monetary landscape has shifted significantly. As inflationary pressures eased worldwide, most central banks transitioned into an easing cycle, cutting rates to support growth. Despite this trend, developed markets such as Australia and Japan have maintained their policy stance as they grapple with unique economic challenges. For example, Australia’s central bank is monitoring its housing market, while Japan continues to navigate long-standing deflationary pressures.

Emerging markets tell a different story. Argentina stands out following a dramatic policy shift under President Javier Milei. Annual inflation has fallen from around 250% to 166%, enabling the Argentine central bank to slash its policy rate by more than a half – a significant deviation from its historically aggressive tightening.