IMF flags rising debt levels as fiscal pressures mount
What the chart shows
This chart displays the debt-to-GDP ratio across various global economies, segmented into three sectors: general government, households and nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs), and non-financial corporations. Key groupings, such as the G20, Emerging Markets, and Advanced Economies are also highlighted to provide a broad perspective on global debt distribution.
Behind the data
In its October 2024 Fiscal Monitor, the IMF projects that global public debt will exceed $100 trillion by the end of the year, with the global debt-to-GDP ratio expected to approach 100% by 2030. Rapid debt accumulation is concentrated in major economies, including the US and China, but the pace and composition of debt vary significantly worldwide.
The IMF identifies several key risks to public debt: rising costs from technology innovation, climate adaptation, demographic pressures, political volatility, and optimism bias in economic projections. To address them, it has introduced a “debt-at-risk” framework to help policymakers assess various debt scenarios under adverse conditions.
The analysis shows that, under current fiscal policies, most countries will be unable to stabilize their debt-to-GDP ratios without further adjustments. The IMF recommends gradual, people-centric fiscal adjustments to safeguard growth, warning that deep cuts to public investment could harm long-term economic stability. However, countries with strong fiscal institutions are better positioned to protect critical investments, even during crises.