June 2024 macro signals: riding the waves of change

Global growth: the Goldilocks path

Global growth is treading a delicate balance, often referred to as the Goldilocks path—not too hot, not too cold. This equilibrium is largely maintained by the interplay between a softening manufacturing sector and resilient consumer demand. Despite some fluctuations, overall economic growth remains robust, avoiding both overheating and significant slowdowns.

Disinflation: Bumpy progress

The journey towards disinflation continues, marked by steady progress with occasional bumps. Central banks remain focused on core services inflation, excluding housing, potentially influencing the timing of monetary policy shifts. 

Central bank pivots: A slow-motion domino effect

Central banks in developed economies are adjusting their monetary policies at different paces. For instance, in Europe:

• The Swiss National Bank has reduced interest rates twice in 2024.
• The European Central Bank and Riksbank have made one rate cut each.
• The Bank of England hasn't yet lowered rates.
• Norway's central bank has indicated it probably won't change rates until 2025.

This shows that even within Europe, there's a lack of coordination in easing monetary policy among advanced economies.

Market pulse: Diverging trends and shifting interests

Equities

Equity performance is widening. Japan and Europe have shown positive trends, while US mega-cap tech firms continue to dominate. These trends highlight the global revenue streams and localized economic factors driving market performance.

Fixed income

Fixed income is flexing its muscles. Higher yields across the curve and the potential for spread tightening in specific sectors are drawing in investors. Leveraged loans have seen increased investor attention.

US dollar

King Dollar isn't ready to abdicate just yet. The currency remains unexpectedly strong, defying the typical narrative that risk-on sentiment weakens the currency. This strength persists despite a generally positive risk environment, adding an interesting twist to the currency market dynamics.

Future signals: Where to watch next

Commodities

The commodities sector is experiencing varied dynamics on the back of supply constraints and increased demand, especially in industrial metals and gold markets. 

Tech

The tech narrative is evolving beyond the dominance of big tech giants. Innovations in AI and other technologies are reshaping various sectors, emphasizing tech’s infiltration across the board.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical tensions are actively reshaping global supply chains and trade patterns. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand and India are emerging as key beneficiaries as companies diversify their manufacturing bases.

Key takeaways

DXY strength

The US dollar remains resilient despite a generally positive risk sentiment. While other central banks such as the ECB and SNB have cut rates, the Fed’s firm stance could support further potential strength in the dollar – defying the typical inverse correlation with risk assets.

Equity sector rotation

In the US, technology, communication services and healthcare sectors are projected to deliver strong earnings growth in 2024. These sectors represent a mix of growth potential and defensive characteristics. In China, consumption-oriented sectors are gaining traction with increased government stimulus.

Fixed income appeal

With historically high yields and the potential for spread tightening, fixed income is attracting renewed interest. The focus is expanding from safety to opportunity.

Commodities outlook

Supply constraints and demand dynamics in energy markets and growing demand for industrial metals linked to the green transition are influencing the sector. Gold prices have historically shown sensitivity to geopolitical events.

Central bank pivot

Markets are pricing in several rate cuts for most major central banks over the next year. This shift from fighting inflation to supporting growth may have implications across asset classes.   

Corporate fundamentals

US companies are showing strong earnings growth driven by improving margins and solid pricing power.

Global growth dynamics

The balance between manufacturing weakness and consumer demand moderation will be one to watch. 

Inflation trajectory

The journey to target inflation continues with some bumps. Core services inflation ex-housing remains a key indicator.

Geopolitical chessboard

While the outlook remains constructive, uncertainties beyond the year-end are notable. Vigilance is required.

Tech evolution

AI and other innovations are reshaping productivity trends, affecting sectors beyond traditional tech giants.

The bottom line: Adaptability is key

Financial markets are evolving rapidly, reshaping traditional dynamics and creating new scenarios. Adaptability and conviction are essential in this environment where change is the only constant. The current market landscape spans equities, fixed income and commodities, each with their own dynamics. Maintaining a balanced perspective is crucial, focusing on both immediate market movements and long-term trends.