Blogs

UK policy rate decision scheduled for 20 June will be influenced by two upcoming inflation reports. Current consensus and market pricing indicate a 60% probability of a rate cut. However, this decision remains a close call, contingent on the data from these two inflations releases.

Macrobond customer Harry Ishihara, a Tokyo-based macro strategist, explores the Bank of Japan's recent shifts in monetary policy as Governor Ueda hints, (seemingly) retracts, then hints again at potentially hiking to support the yen.

The Federal Reserve's focus on balancing wage growth with productivity gains is aiding in labor market rebalancing, reducing inflationary pressures while maintaining strong job creation.

Our guest blog discusses the demographic decline in China and other EMs, which is expected to impact global economic growth and financial stability. It highlights the shift from demographic dividends to increased dependency ratios and emphasizes the need for structural reforms to mitigate economic repercussions.

Turnleaf Analytics combines traditional and novel alternative data, such as pollution and news-based sentiment, to enhance economic forecasting with machine learning, achieving higher accuracy in CPI forecasts for 33 countries. Turnleaf Analytics data is now available on Macrobond One.

Following an interview with BOJ Governor Ueda on 3 April, Asahi News published several articles including one that suggests the Japanese central bank could raise rates again between this summer and autumn.