Macrobond Blog | Macroeconomic insights

November 17, 2023

The clock is ticking on the US economy

Some analyses suggest that stagflation or economic contraction is imminent

Siwat Nakmai

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Siwat Nakmai

,

Jay Yang

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Jay Yang

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November 9, 2023

The Bank of Japan’s "tweak and hold" as inflation ratchets higher

The BoJ sought flexibility before any “lift-off” from negative rates

Tetsuo Harry Ishihara

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Tetsuo Harry Ishihara

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November 7, 2023

Yuan is weighed down by monetary divergence – but supported by the current account

Charting the factors that influence the yuan/dollar exchange rate

Siwat Nakmai

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Siwat Nakmai

,

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November 3, 2023

No need to tighten, but too early to cut. How long will the ECB stay on pause?

Our guest blogger examines inflation and the ECB balance sheet

Martina Daga

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Martina Daga

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October 26, 2023

Watching the NBER’s six recession indicators as US growth confounds the skeptics

We created a dashboard to monitor employment, spending and more

Jay Yang

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Jay Yang

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October 25, 2023

The ECB assesses this cycle’s slowdown with a “pause” likely

Our economist examines Europe’s slowing but persistent inflationary pressures

Meghna Shah

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Meghna Shah

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Anna Tchakarova

Sebastian Lehner

Stephanie Sezen

Alexandre Mirlicourtois and Alberto Balboni

Clémentine Galles

Stephanie Covert

Jordan Rochester

Carlo Ciabuschi, CAIA, CFA

Jens Nærvig Pedersen

Niklas Nordenfelt

Takayuki Miyajima

Stephanie Thomas

Benjamin Perrin

Tetsuo Harry Ishihara

Arthur Budaghyan

Roukaya Ibrahim

Dr Lasse de la Porte Simonsen

Maximilian Radert

Frans van den Bogaerde, CFA

Turnleaf Analytics

Nik Bhatia, CFA, CMT

Gareth Nicholson

亀田制作様

菅野雅明様

Annette Beacher

Nick Fitzpatrick

Elijah Oliveros-Rosen

Grégoire Haftman

Dr. Tariq Chaudhry

Dr. Helen Johnson

Berthon Jean Baptiste

Daniel McCormack

Jonathan Kearns

US Labor Market

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Alternative data

Machine Learning

Data visualization

German industry

Asset valuation

Non-farm payroll

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Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

European Central Bank

Government debt

Foreign exchange

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Financial markets

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La revue française

US manufacturing recovery good for transportation sector

The changing inflation dynamics of Platinum in US manufacturing

Japan’s Inflation Beats the US while Households Feel It’s 17% – Why Is the BOJ so Cautious?

Accounting for Changes in Seasonality, Turnleaf Adjusts Eurozone Core CPI Upwards

La revue française

Japan Prepares for President Trump – Part 2

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Japan prepares for a President Trump

Who ‘MOVE’d My Cheese?

Why is Warren Buffett reloading in Japan?

German-Chinese relationship: Morphing into a zero-sum game

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Il miglioramento delle condizioni creditizie nell'Eurozona: un segnale positivo per la ripresa economica

The Improvement in Credit Conditions in the Eurozone: A Positive Signal for Economic Recovery

Pennsylvania: The Keystone State in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Race

China, FX and Commodities: Unravelling the Complexities

Geopolitics, economics and good decision making

La revue française

Japan’s Financial Overhaul - Making Japan richer

Navigating Market Volatility: Insights from Quant Insight

Mexico's Economic Landscape: Opportunities, Challenges, and Future Prospects

Unpacking the Canadian Economy: Growth, Policy Shifts, and Future Prospects

La revue française

Navigating the economic landscape of the Americas: Key themes for the US, Canada, and Mexico

Mrs. Watanabe’s (Japanese retail’s) yen carry trade

Japan’s Inflation Revolution – an update

European business outlook

The critical role of Point-in-Time data in economic forecasting and quant trading

June 2024 macro signals: riding the waves of change

Harnessing alternative data and machine learning for enhanced economic forecasting and quant trading strategies

Under pressure: Canada’s rate cuts and economic revival

Is the Yen’s Weakness More Structural Now?

Using Turnleaf Analytics inflation forecasts to trade foreign exchange (FX)

Why Transparency Matters in Modern Economic Forecasting

I PMI puntano a una ripresa

PMIs point to a recovery

Demographie und gesamtwirtschaftliche Ersparnis – wesentliche Determinanten für die langfristige Preisbildung von Wohnimmobilien in Deutschland

Germany’s real estate market: Demographic shifts, economic trends and policy impacts

Can upcoming CPI justify BoE policy easing expectations in June?

Did Bank of Japan Governor Ueda do a 360 on the yen?

Mercato del lavoro negli Stati Uniti: sviluppi del 1Q 2024

Labor Market in the United States: Developments in Q1 2024

Demographic Stagnation: The “new” Emerging Markets norm

Economic forecasting using machine learning and alternative data

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hints at more rate hikes

The Bank of Japan ends negative rates, but the inflation revolution looks set to continue

Pre-Budget Outlook

China’s outlook, early 2024: manufacturing PMI and modest recovery prospects

Fed caution aligned with inflation internals, core PCE likely to be sticky

The Bank of Japan drops more hints about NIRP

As US consumers power economic growth, don’t expect Europeans to follow suit as incomes recover

The BOJ is dropping hints that Japan’s “lift-off” from NIRP is likely just months away

The Bank of Japan’s tailwinds: inflation, a labour crunch and corporate profits

Data matters most when it’s a ‘data-dependent’ stance for central banks globally

Who are the leading players in the cash-JGBs market?

A bold look at sovereign default risks

Modeling how German inflation might be easing with Indicio

The clock is ticking on the US economy

The Bank of Japan’s "tweak and hold" as inflation ratchets higher

Yuan is weighed down by monetary divergence – but supported by the current account

No need to tighten, but too early to cut. How long will the ECB stay on pause?

Watching the NBER’s six recession indicators as US growth confounds the skeptics

The ECB assesses this cycle’s slowdown with a “pause” likely

Forecasting inflation Down Under using Indicio – and watching for pressure on the Aussie dollar

Assessing scenarios for oil amid unrest in the Middle East

Japan is obsessed with wages

Non-farm payrolls may show only modest softening in the US job market

Using Indicio to forecast inflation on both sides of the Atlantic

A divergent outlook for central banks after a year of tightening

Is cash king given higher rates? Examining the alternatives for asset allocation

Will markets force the BOJ to finally abandon negative rates?

An expanded BRICS will take some time to make progress on “de-dollarisation”

Heatmapping the world: in search of inflation’s hottest and coldest spots

Medical costs are likely to make US inflation stickier

America and China have traded places

Japan’s inflation revolution

Forecasting NFP: A mixed job market, a slight slowdown

Nowcasting Germany’s stagnant industrial production as the nation debates its economic model

Forecasting NFP with the Fed’s next move in focus

U.S. labour’s leading indicators

Will the US suffer another recession in the near term?

Will the US dollar depreciate further as the global economy recovers?

Why you should care about turmoil in Kazakhstan

Why US inflation will slow and help the BOJ

Why didn’t Japan suffer its own version of the US regional bank crisis? History, incentives, regulation and experience

Japan's Inflation Revolution - An Update

Who will replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor?

When will the US dollar rebound?

Where is US real estate heading in 2022? A forecast from Indicio

What’s the Fed to do?

What’s next for global trade? Using Indicio to create a forecast

What's causing inflation right now?

What to expect from the Ueda BOJ

What's next for oil prices?

What makes a 'failing' pension fund?

What can we say about Brexit?

US boom, euro gloom?

UK a different story; unlike the US 'soft landing' outlook: CPI trends and BoE's rate cycle