World

We have just added a high-frequency dataset from the U.N. Comtrade database: the Estimates of World Seaborne Trade in Real-Time. 

This daily frequency dataset aims to construct trade volume indicators by relying on AIS data. Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a maritime tracking system for vessels, providing information such as position, course, speed, and identification. The authors are transforming the raw AIS information into economic variables using machine-learning techniques to interpret the information.   

The working paper describing the methodology is available here.

Russia is an interesting use-case for this dataset since foreign trade statistics are not updated anymore by the local sources. Indeed, headline figures stop in February 2022. In the chart below, we compared the number of ‘port calls’ for exports and imports. While there is a sudden drop for both variables in the first weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, trajectories are now different: ‘port calls’ for exports are going back to their pre-invasion levels while ‘port calls’ for exports remain low. All in all, this can suggest an increase of the Russian net seaborne foreign trade since the invasion.  

Russia

Continuing with Russia, we’ve just added a Composite Leading Index (CLI) from the Center for Development Institute. 

In the chart below, we used the CLI index as a leading indicator for GDP growth. The most optimal correlation between the two variables happens when the CLI is pushed forward by 3 months. As the chart indicates, Russian GDP is likely to contract in Q2 based on current CLI trends. 

Mauritania

We have also expanded our data coverage for Mauritania, with the addition of the full balance of payments and its breakdowns, published by the central bank. 

In the chart below, we displayed the structure of the Mauritanian current account.

Philippines

We’ve added more granularity to the CPI breakdowns available for the Philippines. You can now navigate up to the finest level of component breakdowns.

In the chart below, we created a diffusion index using the 185 most granular sub-components and divided them between buckets of year-on-year growth rates. Headline inflation is now reaching 5% in the Philippines, but still half of the sub-components are increasing by less than 2% YoY. However, several sub-components are now increasing by more than 30%, counter-weighting the previous effect.