‍United States

The New York Fed has begun calculating a measure of consumers’ five-year inflation expectations, complementing similar datasets for one- and three-year time frames. 

In the chart below, we extended the current headline inflation series into the future, using this five-year curve of consumer expectations. Consumers expect inflation to stay high next year and then subside gradually towards 2 percent in 2027.  

Thailand

We’ve added a new dataset from Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics that provides monthly retail and wholesale prices for fertilisers. Chemical fertilisers are widely used for rice production in Thailand, which is the second-largest exporter of the crop, trailing only India. 

In the chart below, we looked at the relationship between the export price of rice and fertiliser prices. There is a strong correlation – historically, more than 0.8 -- between the price of fertiliser and changes to rice prices 10 months later.

The time series in the chart’s x axis refers to fertiliser prices. The line graphing the rice price has been shifted forward by 10 months, demonstrating how closely cause and likely effect are correlated. Given this correlation and the time lag, the chart below would suggest export prices for rice are likely to rise.   

Canada

We’ve expanded our real estate data coverage with the addition of the rental market report published by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The number of listed rentals and the average rent per type of apartment are now available for the Toronto area. 

In the chart below, we graphed the number of listings available on the market. As the pandemic prompted people to leave Canada’s largest city, there was a spike in supply in 2020, resulting in a significant decrease in rents. The year-on-year rent decline reached 25% for studio apartments in January 2021. 

South Korea

We’ve added a new South Korean source: the Korea National Oil Corporation, which provides daily retail fuel prices. 

In the chart below, we compared various fuel prices with inflation in the transportation sector from January 2020. Retail fuel prices seem to have peaked in early July, suggesting some relief for consumers is ahead.